Everyone who's ever bought a home has wondered: should I wait? In Sydney, this question has been asked every year since 1980 — and the answer, in hindsight, has almost always been the same: the buyers who waited ended up chasing rising prices. Here's the honest, data-grounded view for 2026.
↓
RBA rates cut Feb 2025 — further cuts expected
+5.8%
Sydney median house price growth (last 12 months)
35K
FHBG places available right now
+340K
Net migration to Australia (2024–25)
The Market Conditions in Sydney Right Now (April 2026)
Let's ground this in what's actually happening, not what headlines are claiming:
Interest Rates — Falling
The RBA cut rates for the first time in 4 years in February 2025, and further cuts are expected through 2025–26 as inflation continues to ease. In practical terms:
- Variable rates have fallen from their peak and most economists forecast 1–2 further cuts by end of 2026
- Each 0.25% cut reduces monthly repayments by approximately $100–$150 on a $700,000 loan
- Falling rates support property prices — as borrowing becomes cheaper, demand increases
- Buyers who lock in a purchase now benefit from anticipated rate relief without having waited
Property Prices — Growing, But Not at Peak Speed
Sydney's median house price grew approximately 5.8% over the past 12 months — below the pandemic peak of 20%+ but above the long-run average of ~5%. The key insight: prices were not expected to fall meaningfully in 2026, and most analysts forecast continued modest growth driven by:
- Sustained high net migration (Australia added 340,000+ people in 2024–25, mostly settling in Sydney and Melbourne)
- Chronic housing undersupply — Australia is building ~50,000 fewer homes per year than needed
- Falling rates increasing buyer demand and purchasing power
- Tight rental market pushing renters to buy
Western and SW Sydney — Outperforming the Metro
For the specific suburbs Mortgagefy operates in — Campbelltown, Liverpool, Leppington, Oran Park, Marsden Park, Bardia — the growth story in 2025–26 is particularly strong:
- Infrastructure investment (Sydney Metro Southwest, Western Parkland City, Badgerys Creek airport) is lifting surrounding suburb values ahead of completion
- Relative affordability vs inner-west and eastern suburbs continues to attract first home buyers, young families, and investors
- New housing estates provide supply — but land releases are finite and remaining lots in established estates command premiums
The "Wait for Prices to Drop" Fallacy
Many buyers wait for a "dip" to buy at a discount. The problem: the factors that create dips (recession, mass unemployment, credit crunch) also make banks less willing to lend, incomes less stable, and deposits harder to maintain. The buyers best positioned to buy during dips are those who already have pre-approvals and deposits ready. By the time prices visibly dip, the window is typically 3–6 months — and most buyers aren't ready that quickly.
The Signals That Say "Buy Now"
Rate cuts expected through 2026
Lower rates mean your borrowing power increases and prices are likely to rise as more buyers enter the market.
FHBG places available now (35,000 per year)
Places run out before June. Acting early in the financial year secures your spot in the guarantee scheme.
Strong rental market — buying is increasingly competitive with renting
In many SW Sydney suburbs, a mortgage repayment is within $200–$300 of the weekly rent — a rapidly narrowing gap.
Infrastructure investment in SW Sydney is underpriced
The Badgerys Creek airport, Metro Southwest, and Western Parkland City are transformative. Suburbs adjacent to these projects are still accessible — not for much longer.
Supply chronically short across Australia
Australia needs ~240,000 new homes per year. It's building ~190,000. The shortfall compounds every year and supports prices long-term.
The Signals That Suggest Caution
Affordability is genuinely stretched
Sydney's median price-to-income ratio is near historic highs. Buyers must ensure repayments are sustainable, not just possible on paper.
Global economic uncertainty
Trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and currency movements create macro uncertainty. These rarely derail Australian property long-term but can slow growth in the short term.
Buying the wrong property destroys wealth
Not all Sydney properties grow equally. Buying purely on affordability (lowest price suburb, highest density) without considering fundamentals can underperform significantly.
The Honest Answer: "Is Now a Good Time to Buy?"
The correct answer is: it depends on you, not the market. Specifically:
- If you're financially ready — stable income, adequate deposit, clean credit file, manageable debts — and you plan to hold for 5+ years, the evidence strongly favours buying in 2026 over waiting.
- If you're buying the right property in the right suburb — growth corridor with infrastructure tailwinds, owner-occupier demand, not just the cheapest thing available — your risk is low and your long-run outcome is very likely positive.
- If you're financially stretched — borrowing at the absolute limit of your capacity with no buffer — waiting and strengthening your position may be the right call.
- If you're waiting for prices to fall — you're likely to keep waiting. Sydney property has never fallen for more than 18 months without recovering to a new high. The timeline is always a question of when, not if.
Get a personalised market assessment for your situation
Our brokers will look at your income, deposit, suburb preference, and the current market — and give you an honest view on whether buying now makes sense for you.
Or
SW Sydney in 2026: Why This Corridor Specifically Makes Sense
Rather than commenting on the broad Sydney market, let's focus on the specific areas where Mortgagefy operates and where first home buyers are actually buying in 2026:
Campbelltown and the Macarthur Region
Campbelltown's median house price sits around $720,000–$740,000 — significantly below the Sydney median of $1.4M+. The area is benefitting from:
- Ongoing infrastructure investment in the Macarthur region (hospital expansion, TAFE, retail)
- Strong population growth as Sydney's inner rings become unaffordable
- New land releases in adjacent Appin and Douglas Park absorbing demand while limiting price spikes in established Campbelltown stock
See our full guide: Buying a home in Campbelltown 2026
Leppington, Oran Park, and the South West Growth Corridor
This is arguably the most compelling corridor for first home buyers in 2026:
- House-and-land packages still available under $800,000 — within FHBG price cap and stamp duty exemption threshold
- Metro Southwest extension to open in stages through 2026–27 — connecting Leppington to the broader rail network
- Town centres in Oran Park and Gregory Hills are now established — restaurants, schools, shops, childcare are in place
- Historical growth: suburbs in this corridor have delivered 6–9% annual growth over the past decade
Marsden Park, Bardia, and the North West Growth Areas
While further from Sydney CBD, the North West Growth Area benefits from:
- Metro Northwest fully operational — connecting Tallawong and Rouse Hill to Chatswood and City
- New land releases still providing new stock — but approvals are slowing as available land fills up
- Strong rental yields attracting investors, which supports prices and rental market stability
The Specific Situations Where Waiting Is Reasonable
We want to give you an honest view. There are circumstances where waiting 6–18 months is the right call:
- You're less than 6 months from your target deposit — buying a worse property now vs your target property in 6 months may not be worth it. Calculate the price growth vs the upgrade in quality.
- You're about to change jobs — lenders require 3 months of employment history in a new role before they'll lend. Don't apply for a mortgage in the first 3 months of a new job.
- You have a credit issue that needs 12 months to clear — a default, missed payment, or Part 9 arrangement that falls off your file in 12 months may justify waiting to access better rates and more lenders.
- FHBG places run out for this financial year — if it's April–June and FHBG places are exhausted, applying from 1 July (new tranche) with 3 months additional savings may produce a better outcome.
What Smart Buyers Are Doing Right Now
The most successful buyers we see in 2026 are doing these things regardless of whether they buy in the next 3 months or 12 months:
- Getting a broker assessment early — understanding their real borrowing power and what deposit they actually need
- Attending open homes in their target suburbs — building market knowledge and understanding realistic prices before they're ready
- Opening an FHSS-compatible super contribution — even 6 months of contributions provides a tax-advantaged savings boost
- Cleaning up their credit file and reducing card limits — removing friction from their eventual application
- Getting pre-approval and then searching seriously — knowing their ceiling before they start negotiating
The difference between a buyer who plans 12 months ahead and one who scrambles when they "decide they're ready" is significant — in the rate they get, the lender they access, the grants they qualify for, and the property they can purchase.
If 2026 is your year, or if you're 12–24 months away: read our deposit saving guide, understand the FHBG, and then call us. The market won't wait — but a good plan makes the most of it regardless of timing.
Is It the Right Time for You Specifically?
Stop guessing about the market. Get a free assessment of your position, your suburb, and your timeline — from brokers who do this every day in SW Sydney.
Ready to talk to a broker?
Get a straight answer about your borrowing power — no credit check, no obligation. Our Sydney mortgage broker team is available Mon–Sat 9am–7pm.